Skip to main content
Wednesday · May 20, 2026
Bill Gross Sees a Recession By Year End

Bill Gross Sees a Recession By Year End

(Bloomberg) - Bill Gross says he’s buying futures tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and sees a recession in the fourth quarter.

Posting on X on Monday, Gross said he expects the gap between two- and 10-year yields as well as the difference between two- and five-year yields to go positive before year end.

Regional bank turbulence and the rise in auto-loan delinquencies suggest a significant slowdown in the US economy, he noted.

Equity arbitrages would make the “best investment,” Gross said, adding that he was “seriously considering regional banks again.”

Bill Gross Goes From Bond King to Merger-Arbitrage Player.

By Susanne Barton
With assistance from Ye Xie

Premium Resources · Free for Advisors

Buyer guides, rankings & research the industry actually uses.

Independently produced reports — downloaded by tens of thousands of advisors, RIAs and wealth professionals every year.

120k+

Annual downloads

8 verticals

Editorially independent