(Yahoo!Finance) - I'm feeling reflective ahead of my birthday in the coming week.
And on that note, I can't remember the last time "Dr. Doom" — aka noted NYU economist Nouriel Roubini — was so upbeat about stocks and the economy.
I've talked with him for the better part of a decade. Every single time, we spent good chunks of time discussing how stocks and the economy were on the precipice of some form of disaster.
Awesome chats. Roubini knows his stuff.
So I was surprised by his, dare I say, sorta bullishness — right in the middle of the Iran war — when he stepped up to the Opening Bid mic this week.
"There is some increase in inflation, but for now, recession is not is not my baseline," Roubini said (video above).
I almost fainted listening to this. (Well, that and my Hyrox race training is dehydrating me.) I expected a recession call.
Roubini, famously dubbed Dr. Doom for his early prediction of the 2008 housing market bust, is one of the world's most influential economists.
His career spans the highest levels of policy and academia, including roles at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the Treasury Department, and the International Monetary Fund.
Roubini went on to explain that AI stands to drive a lot of productivity in the economy — Circle (CRCL) CEO Jeremy Allaire would agree — and that he saw signs of the economy accelerating before the war. Once the war ends, he said there's a good chance those trends regain hold.
Roubini added, "If the war lasts only two months, there'll be the slowdown of growth and rising inflation. But it's going to be moderate, and we could still grow faster than potential this year."
Roubini isn't alone in Wall Street circles in keeping the faith on markets and the economy.
I'm honestly surprised by all the stay-the-course calls, especially as gas prices are surging nationwide and consumer sentiment has started to tank. How could these bullish S&P 500 (^GSPC) earnings estimates for 2026 be hit? It all seems ludicrous.
Yet, here we are with happy vibes on the Street.
A few quotes to illustrate my point:
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"Stay the course. The macro backdrop has become more fragile — war in the Middle East, AI disruption and emerging stress in private credit. But we believe the US continues to offer stronger nominal growth than other major economies and a secular growth engine in Technology that shows few signs of stopping. We are incrementally bullish on US equities, though the road likely stays bumpy until we turn a corner." —Barclays strategist Venu Krishna
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"Equity risk/reward is incrementally improving, supported by a reset in valuations, sentiment, and technical conditions. Measured cash deployment is warranted, while a more aggressive stance would likely require a more compelling risk/reward tradeoff." —Truist chief investment officer Keith Lerner
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"With the eruption of turmoil in the Middle East, the risks facing the global economy have shifted dramatically to the downside. For now, our growth forecast for 2026 is only a bit lower at 2.7%, down just 0.2 percentage points from February. But we are broadly in 'wait and see' mode. Given the twists and turns in the evolving conflict, we still have only limited insight into the size and persistence of the eventual shock." —Citi economist Nathan Sheets
Bottom line: Stay a realist on all of this, even in the face of Wall Street smiles.
By Brian Sozzi · Executive Editor
