(Yahoo!Finance) - President Biden’s big legislative package, the “Build Back Better” agenda, won’t pass in 2021. Biden himself acknowledged that on Dec. 16, when he said he expects Congress to continue working on the bill “in the days and weeks ahead.” Democrats had hoped an end-of-year deadline would serve a forcing function to get the bill done and clear the decks for 2022. They couldn’t pull it off.
That means two things.
First, it’s an obvious setback for Biden and his fellow Democrats in Congress. Biden campaigned on the social-welfare expansions and green-energy investments contained in the legislation, and the Democrats’ surprise capture of two Senate seats in Georgia made it possible to pass. But the Democrats have miscalculated all year long, believing that a tiny one-vote majority would open the door to a long list of priorities held mostly by the party’s liberal “progressive” wing. There are still a few moderates in the party unwilling to write blank checks for various social programs, and they’ve blocked BBB, as it is known.
Second, the focus on BBB obscures two genuine wins for Biden this year: The big relief bill Democrats passed in March, with no Republican support, and the infrastructure bill Congress passed in November with some GOP votes. The relief bill kept Covid relief going to millions of families, and it gave voters a taste of enhanced social spending—mainly, the advanceable child tax credit—that Democrats and even some Republicans would like to see permanent. The infrastructure bill was a heavy lift Biden’s predecessor, President Trump, couldn’t hoist. If Democrats weren’t flailing on BBB, Biden would look considerably more successful in his first year than he does.
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina insists that Build Back Better is “dead forever.” It isn’t. Democrats can still pass the legislation in 2022, if they can agree on what should be in it. Beneath the party’s dysfunction, there’s actually progress. All 50 Senate Democrats now seem comfortable with the $1.7 trillion price tag, which is sharply discounted from the $3 trillion-plus that Biden started with. The disagreement is over how to spend that money.
If Democrats can’t figure that out by early next year, they will deserve whatever punishment voters mete out in the 2022 midterms. “It would be perhaps one of the greatest own goals in legislative history if Democrats can't pass Build Back Better at this point,” Beacon Policy Advisors advised in a Dec. 17 research note. “They have the top line – $1.75 trillion. They have the legislative vehicle. They just need to agree on the goodies.”
Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who holds a de facto veto over the legislation, objects to the short-term implementation of an expanded child tax credit, which Democrats hope to make permanent some day. The current bill would continue the credit for just one year, which helps lower the cost of legislation. But then what? If the votes aren’t there to extend the credit in 2022, it was a temporary experiment of dubious value. If the votes are there to extend it, it will validate GOP criticism that Democrats intend to spend a lot more than $1.7 trillion.
Possible solutions that might get the bill to the finish early next year: eliminate the expanded tax credit altogether and spend more money on other things, such as green energy. Or curtail eligibility for the credit but extend it for longer. Or some mishmash including these types of changes and more.
Biden’s first year in office is almost up, bringing the inevitable comparisons to his predecessors during their own first years. President Obama signed a big relief bill during his first term in office, with his other legislative lift, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), coming in his second year. Both turned out to be relatively unpopular, even if they were beneficial overall.
President Trump signed a big tax cut law into effect during his first year, fulfilling a long-time GOP goal. That too, was relatively unpopular, however, since voters felt it disproportionately benefited businesses and the wealthy. Trump also failed to repeal the ACA, leaving one of his main campaign promises unfulfilled.
By comparison, Biden has done pretty well, with two big bills signed and decent odds he’ll ink BBB within a month or two. Voters, for now, are bummed about never-ending Covid and a surprise bout of inflation, which should be Biden’s key focus in 2022 if he wants Democrats to have a fighting chance in the midterms. Building back, whenever it happens, leaves many more jobs to do.
Rick Newman · Senior Columnist
