(Yahoo! Finance) - Tesla (TSLA) investors buying near today’s $445 share price are getting a big bonus: the Optimus robot business for free.
At least that’s what Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter wrote in the investment bank’s second edition of his "Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla.” Per Piper’s discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, Tesla is worth around $400 per share, but Optimus is not part of that analysis.
The updated model breaks Tesla into 17 product lines, ranging from vehicles and energy storage to supercharging, in-house insurance, FSD subscriptions, and the robotaxi business. The sum of those lines, using a 20-year DCF analysis, suggests Tesla is worth $400 per share — “just shy of TSLA’s current share price.”
Tesla stock jumped nearly 4% on Monday, finishing at $445.
“Critically, this analysis excludes Optimus, Tesla’s forthcoming humanoid robot,” Potter wrote. “In other words, at $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for free.’”
Potter is not claiming the robot is worthless. Optimus and a separate “inference-as-a-service” business are “thesis-defining products that, arguably, will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” he said.
But valuing such a transformational business is difficult, if not impossible. “Where to begin forecasting products with the potential to fundamentally reshape labor markets and alter global GDP? One day, we will try ... but for now, the analysis in this report illustrates that there’s no rush,” he said.
Potter reiterated a $500 price target on Tesla stock, unchanged from his previous note. The math is straightforward: $500 PT minus $400 in modeled product-line value leaves $100 per share for Optimus, inference-as-a-service, and anything else not in the 17-line build.
Potter believes that allocation is conservative: “Some would argue that’s far too low (we’re inclined to agree).”
A tricky valuation
If Potter’s $400 base case holds, today’s price is roughly fair value for the parts of Tesla that can be modeled with conventional analysis — and the optionality on humanoid robotics and AI inference is essentially thrown in at no charge.
But there’s a catch. The entire “free Optimus” framing is based on Piper Sandler’s new valuation based on a 233x fiscal year 2027 earnings multiple, up from 180x, meaning it’s much richer.
Potter argues that most sell-side models give short shrift to Tesla's less-visible revenue streams.
“We think most sell-side modeling efforts ignore the financial impact of in-house insurance, Supercharging, and other outside-the-box revenue streams,” he wrote. Potter also notes that Piper’s prior model “lacked a serious attempt to reflect the 2025 CEO compensation plan, and it didn't assign a specific value to the robo-taxi business.”
Potter’s 2026 and 2027 revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates sit below consensus, for readily apparent reasons: “We think consensus expectations are probably too high; we’re cutting our revenue and EPS estimates, to reflect declining deliveries (discontinued products) as well as a smaller contribution from regulatory credits (100% margin).”
A future EPS miss, in his view, would not seriously hurt the multiple: “If we’re right, and if TSLA misses consensus, we don’t think the resulting valuation headwinds, if any, will last long.”
Potter’s reasoning hinges on a shift in what investors are actually buying. Tesla’s IR team has begun disclosing FSD subscriber counts — 1.1 million active users as of the fourth quarter of 2025 — and Potter argues that traditional auto metrics are losing relevance. “Historically relevant metrics are growing less important,” he said. “As long as robotaxi- and FSD-related metrics keep improving, we think there’s support for at least $400/share.”
It’s an overall bullish take on the stock, with the argument being that a slowing traditional auto business will be more than compensated by new lines of business like autonomy (FSD and robotaxis), energy storage, and insurance.
The bet then — that Optimus robots will change how we live and the economy functions — is a smart one from Potter’s viewpoint, since it essentially costs investors nothing at these levels.
The payoff will depend on Tesla and CEO Elon Musk’s ability to execute his plan.
By Pras Subramanian - Senior Reporter
May 11, 2026
