Howard Marks, Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management, warns that the Trump administration’s tariff strategy could mark one of the most consequential economic events of our time—one with direct implications for RIAs and wealth advisors navigating client portfolios through geopolitical volatility.
In a recent memo, Marks compared the current tariff trajectory to a self-inflicted wound, much like Brexit. “I consider the tariff developments thus far to be what soccer fans call an own goal,” he wrote. “They’re highly analogous to Brexit, and we know how that turned out—declines in GDP, shaken morale, weakened alliances, and a damaged reputation for governance. All self-inflicted.”
President Trump’s decision to escalate tariffs on China to 125%, even with a 90-day pause in place for most duties, has introduced a wave of uncertainty into the markets. According to Marks, if these broader policies are enacted, they could accelerate a U.S. recession, drive up inflation, and create widespread market dislocation—risks that advisors must account for when constructing resilient portfolios.
Marks emphasized that the negative consequences of protectionist measures manifest quickly, while any long-term gains are speculative at best. Even a full reversal of the tariff regime won’t repair the global perception of instability in U.S. trade policy. “Even if the tariffs are reversed entirely, it’s unlikely the other nations will dismiss this incident and conclude that they have nothing to worry about in terms of relations with the U.S.,” he noted in his memo titled *Nobody Knows (Yet Again)*.
For RIAs, the implications are clear: economic headwinds are forming, and clients will increasingly look to their advisors for strategies that hedge against inflation, guard against systemic risk, and provide a defensive stance amid policy uncertainty.
Marks also warned of the broader, more abstract risks: disruption to global trade norms established over the last eight decades. “Last week’s events remind us of 2008 and the Global Financial Crisis. All norms have been overthrown,” he said. “The way world trade has operated for the last 80 years may be of little relevance to the future.”
Wealth advisors should closely monitor how these policies evolve, not only for their direct market impact but for the longer-term shifts in international economic relationships. These developments reinforce the value of active management, global diversification, and client education in volatile environments.
