(MarketWatch) "[Trump] will surely try to stick to his public narrative, which has worked so well for so long. But a severe recession may be his undoing. And even before economic catastrophe strikes, the public may begin paying more attention to his aberrations — and to contagious new counter-narratives that crowd out his own."
That’s Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller explaining in an editorial for the Guardian published on Monday how a downturn in the economy could be what finally marks the ruin of Trump’s turbulent presidency.
“During a recession, people pull back and reassess their views. Consumers spend less, avoiding purchases that can be postponed: a new car, home renovations and expensive holidays,” Shiller continued. “Businesses spend less on new factories and equipment, and put off recruiting.”
The “public narrative” he was referring to is Trump’s lifetime pursuit of putting his glam life on display for everybody to see and aspire to — fancy cars, beautiful women, private jets, gold toilets. Look at me, I’m rich and you can be, too!
That, Shiller says, has less appeal when the economy goes belly up.
“Now that Trump has established a contagious narrative, he continues to live out his TV show persona,” he wrote, adding that this approach is nothing new. In fact, it dates back thousands of years. He quoted the ancient cynic Lucian of Samosata, who told would-be leaders of the era how to exploit “the power narrative”:
In your private life, be resolved to do anything and everything, to dice, to drink deep, to live high and keep mistresses, or at all events to boast of it even if you do not do it, telling everyone about it and showing notes that purport to be written by women. You must aim to be elegant, you know, and take pains to create the impression that women are devoted to you. This also will be set down to the credit of your rhetoric by the public, who will infer from it that your fame extends even to the women’s quarters.
This has worked for Trump during his presidency, Shiller says, but only because the economy has been exceptionally strong, with the U.S. expansion the longest on record going back to the 1850s.
“So far, with his flashy lifestyle, Trump has been a resounding inspiration to many consumers and investors,” Shiller wrote. “But motivational speakers often end up repelling the very people they once inspired.”
An ailing stock market certainly won’t help Trump’s chances in 2020, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.75% has been all over the place lately. On Tuesday, the blue-chip index was down more than 300 points.
