The Bond Market Shuddered. Now We Find Out If That Was Justified
Treasury yields have sunk as if a U.S. recession is nearly here. A bundle of important economic reports coming this week could show those fears false.
Treasury yields have sunk as if a U.S. recession is nearly here. A bundle of important economic reports coming this week could show those fears false.
“The jump in the MOVE index has unnerved a lot of folks, with the worry that the VIX is implying that stocks are whistling past the graveyard here."
Morgan Stanley has abandoned its forecast for the Federal Reserve to tighten once more by year-end and lowered its projection for Treasury rates.
As the sun sets on a remarkable quarter, discomfort is on display in the dash to bonds that pushed yields on the world’s safest debt to a recent low.
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The inversion of the Treasury yield curve shows bond traders see a weaker economy pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates before tightening.
When things are too calm, investors too enthusiastic, or valuations too rich, there is a category of analysts who reliably get worried.