"Return of my money is more important than return on my money"
- Mark Twain.
(John McHugh, WealthTrust) Below are some discussion points.
3 qtr. earnings growth estimates less energy which is forecasting
negative earnings growth for the 3rd QTR. The trend is concerning.
Decline in leading indicators at 4 months straight. The June 6-month
moving averages are approaching negative territory. I believe July and August numbers will be negative. A particular concern is that consumer confidence has been steadily declining.
Inversion of the yield curve results in reduced margins for lending by banks and is a recession indicator. Currently 17 countries have an inverted yield curve including the United States.
Weakness in lower income consumer economics.
Inflation might be decelerating but new government spending, increases in taxes & higher wage growth are potential problems for keeping inflation heading in the right direction.
Gold & Silver are performing well over the last 4 weeks suggesting anticipated weakness in the dollar I believe on recession fears.
And then there's the Geopolitical situation (Ukraine & Taiwan).
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