The chances of a stimulus package before the November election just dropped dramatically.
Here’s what you need to know.
Stimulus Package
If you’re expecting a stimulus deal before the election on November 3, there’s an additional hurdle that makes a deal now less likely. Here are 3 reasons why a stimulus deal may not get done before November.
1. Supreme Court confirmation
With the passing on Friday of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) says he will hold a vote before the November election to fill the vacant seat on the Supreme Court. To the dismay of Democrats, McConnell is not willing to wait until after the election. Similarly, President Donald Trump says he wants to nominate a Supreme Court justice “without delay.” Democrats such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) argue that McConnell should let the American people vote for president, and then let the winner—whether it’s TRump or Joe Biden—nominate the next Supreme Court justice.
If the Senate will be focused on a Supreme Court confirmation process, with about six weeks until the election, it’s less likely they will be focused on creating a bipartisan stimulus package.
2. Funding the federal government
The federal government needs to be funded beyond September 30, 2020. Congress will need to approve a continuing resolution to fund the government. This will require time and effort to agree on funding priorities. If Congress is focused on both a Supreme Court confirmation process and a continuing resolution, any potential stimulus deal could be moved to the back burner.
3. Election campaigning in October
All member of the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 U.S. senators are up for re-election this November. While they have been campaigning for months, October is when they focus on the last stretch. Many members of Congress are away from Washington and home in their districts, making a final campaign push. Can members of Congress be called back to Washington to vote? Yes, since all voting must be done in person. While Pelosi has said the House would stay in session until early October to finalize a potential stimulus deal, many members will want to return home to secure their election prospects.
Final Thoughts
Can a stimulus deal get done? Will a Supreme Court nominee get confirmed? Will a continuing resolution get passed? These could all happen before the election. It’s possible that Congress places all three on a parallel track to completion, given their importance. However, Congress has to pass a continuing resolution this month. That becomes a first priority for Congress. Second, Trump could nominate a Supreme Court justice as early as this week. Both Trump and McConnell want to fill the vacancy before the election. That makes the Supreme Court confirmation process the next focus. That leaves a potential stimulus deal as third in line in this triumvirate. Don’t count out a stimulus deal, but the chances may have dropped dramatically.
This article originally appeared on Forbes.
