Nouriel Roubini, long known for his bearish economic outlooks, is sounding an unexpected note of optimism: despite the disruptive potential of Trump-era protectionism, he sees America’s economic trajectory staying intact—driven by the country’s dominant position in next-generation technologies.
Writing in Project Syndicate, Roubini argues that U.S. economic growth is resilient enough to withstand the pressures of tariffs, populism, and policy volatility. His rationale: markets, institutions, and America’s innovation engine are stronger than any single administration.
“For all the noise around trade wars and Fed bashing, America’s exceptional growth will survive Trump,” Roubini writes. “The country’s edge in transformative technologies gives it an economic foundation few other nations can match.”
This perspective stands in stark contrast to recent concerns from wealth managers and global investors. Trump's “America First” agenda has triggered a retreat from U.S. assets by foreign investors. Inflows into Treasurys have weakened, the dollar has faced renewed pressure, and recent GDP and labor data have sparked worries about stagnation. But Roubini pushes back on that gloom.
He notes that market forces themselves have acted as a check on some of Trump's more extreme moves—pointing to the market-led rollback of tariff escalation and the president’s softened tone toward the Federal Reserve as examples of investor discipline in action.
More importantly for long-term allocators and RIAs, Roubini argues the real growth story lies in America’s technological dominance. He projects U.S. potential growth could climb to nearly 4% by 2030—more than double the IMF’s current 1.8% estimate.
Why the gap? Because the U.S. is “the global leader in 10 of the 12 industries that will define the next era of economic growth,” according to Roubini. These include artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biomedical research, space exploration, and advanced robotics. The only sectors where China leads are EVs and certain areas of green tech.
For wealth advisors navigating portfolios through election-year turbulence, the message is clear: ignore the noise and focus on structural trends.
“Innovation remains a magnet for capital,” Roubini writes. “Even with trade tensions, the investment outlook for U.S. tech firms and AI hyperscalers remains firmly positive. Many are doubling down.”
Indeed, despite concerns over China’s AI advancements—Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang noted recently that China is “not behind” in AI development—Roubini believes the U.S. retains a broad and durable lead in most critical sectors. And this leadership isn’t just about market cap or earnings—it’s about long-term economic leverage and global influence.
He predicts that, even if tariffs and protectionist policies persist, they won't derail the investment case for American innovation. “These companies are still attracting capital, still hiring, and still innovating,” he writes. “That’s what drives GDP growth—and wealth creation.”
Roubini also sees a potential upside for wealth redistribution. He suggests that the gains from this next wave of technology investment could spread more widely, countering some of the inequality concerns that have fueled populist backlash in recent years.
“After an initial period of pain, the U.S. economy will thrive,” he writes.
For advisors, this presents a compelling long-term thesis: stay invested in U.S. innovation, hedge policy risk through diversification, and watch for opportunities during volatility. The American economy, Roubini contends, is still built to lead—and the market itself may be the best defense against its own political volatility.
