Retail investors are poised to drive a massive $500 billion wave of equity inflows in the second half of 2025, according to a new forecast from JPMorgan.
For RIAs and wealth managers, the continued retail enthusiasm presents both opportunities and challenges as individual investors increasingly dominate market flows.
JPMorgan’s analysts project that retail investors alone could account for $360 billion in net equity purchases over the next six months, following an already aggressive first half of the year in which retail flows hit $270 billion. The full-year estimate of $630 billion in net retail stock buying would eclipse levels seen even during the retail-driven rally of the pandemic era.
“We foresee equity inflows of approximately $500 billion through year-end, predominantly led by retail investors. That scale of buying could lift equity markets another 5% to 10% before 2026,” JPMorgan strategists noted in a client update.
The surge in retail activity underscores the growing influence of individual investors—many acting outside traditional advisory channels—on market dynamics. Vanda Research, which monitors retail flows into stocks and ETFs, confirmed the trend, reporting that retail net purchases in the first half of 2025 are the highest of the last decade.
“Retail enthusiasm in the first six months outpaced even the most frenzied buying seen during the 2020–2021 rally,” said Marco Iachini, vice president at Vanda. “This isn’t a niche corner of the market anymore—retail has become a macro force.”
For wealth advisors, the question becomes how to help clients navigate markets that are being reshaped by increasingly sophisticated—and sometimes erratic—retail sentiment.
Tech Sector Still Dominating Retail Flows
Much of the activity has been concentrated in technology and AI-adjacent names. Nvidia led all individual stocks with $19.3 billion in retail inflows during the first half of 2025, followed by Tesla at $11.9 billion. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) saw $6.3 billion in inflows, indicating continued interest in broad market exposure alongside aggressive single-stock bets.
“The AI narrative remains a dominant driver,” Iachini said. “But retail is also showing signs of tactical rotation into ETFs and sector-specific themes.”
This pattern may be contributing to the strong performance of the S&P 500 and the continued strength of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech names. For RIAs managing balanced portfolios, the challenge lies in rebalancing exposures to avoid chasing momentum while acknowledging the strength and resilience of these market leaders.
Foreign Buyers Could Add Another Tailwind
While retail flows remain the centerpiece of JPMorgan’s forecast, the bank noted that foreign investors may also reengage in the second half of the year. They estimate that international investors could bring an additional $50 billion to $100 billion in net equity purchases.
Despite recent concerns about tariffs, fiscal uncertainty, and a weakening U.S. fiscal position, JPMorgan believes global capital cannot ignore the U.S. market’s growth trajectory for long.
“Any perceived ‘boycott’ of U.S. equities by foreign investors is unlikely to persist,” the strategists wrote. “The U.S. remains the world’s most dynamic and liquid equity market, especially in the high-growth technology sector.”
Wealth managers with globally diversified portfolios should watch for signs of reentry by foreign capital, particularly if the U.S. dollar continues to stabilize. The Dollar Index has recently hovered near 98, a level that may be sufficient to reduce currency risk concerns for overseas buyers.
Advisors Should Prepare for Volatility—And Opportunity
While the buying spree may add fuel to the current rally, the sheer scale of inflows from unsophisticated or sentiment-driven investors increases the risk of volatility, particularly in high-beta sectors. Advisors would do well to coach clients on the importance of discipline and long-term strategy amid the exuberance.
At the same time, the data provides a clear signal that individual investors are not retreating from the markets—they are doubling down. RIAs and independent advisors should take this moment to evaluate how they are communicating with clients about participation, risk, and the structural changes in who’s really moving the markets.
This retail resurgence is more than a footnote. It’s the headline—and one that every advisor needs to have a perspective on.
