Market discussions around tariffs and broader macroeconomic headwinds have kept the word “uncertainty” top of mind. But did the tone on earnings calls actually reflect that? Interestingly, the answer is no. Despite the headline concerns, fewer S&P 500 companies referenced “uncertainty” on second-quarter calls than they did in the first quarter.
According to FactSet’s Document Search—which allows systematic tracking of specific terms across earnings call transcripts—mentions of “uncertainty” fell meaningfully from Q1 to Q2. From June 15 through September 12, 283 S&P 500 companies used the word on their earnings calls. That compares with 418 mentions in the prior quarter (March 15 through June 14), a sharp 32% decline.
For advisors, the takeaway is that management teams may be normalizing around existing macro risks rather than amplifying them. The tariff narrative and policy debates remain in the background, but corporate leaders appear less inclined to emphasize uncertainty as a defining theme.
That said, the latest figure remains elevated when viewed through a longer lens. The five-year average for “uncertainty” mentions in a given quarter sits at 227, while the 10-year average is 188. So even after the quarter-over-quarter pullback, executives are still invoking the term more frequently than they have historically. For advisors, this underscores that while sentiment may be improving relative to earlier this year, the corporate outlook is still framed by above-average caution.
Sector-level breakdowns tell an even more nuanced story. The Financials sector led the way with 55 companies referencing uncertainty, followed closely by Industrials at 54. Looking at percentages, the Materials sector stood out, with 77% of its earnings calls citing uncertainty. Financials (75%) and Industrials (71%) followed closely, signaling that these economically sensitive industries continue to grapple with unpredictable variables around rates, growth, trade, and supply chains.
Every sector posted a decline in references to uncertainty relative to the prior quarter. The steepest drops came from Information Technology (down 26 calls), Industrials (down 18), and Consumer Discretionary (down 17). For advisors, this suggests that areas tied to consumer spending and global supply chains are recalibrating their outlooks after earlier quarters of heightened concern. The pullback in IT mentions could also reflect stabilization in expectations around demand trends, supply bottlenecks, or regulatory pressures.
For wealth managers and RIAs guiding clients, the key insight is that corporate leadership appears to be adjusting to the new normal rather than reacting with escalating alarm. Uncertainty is still a major part of the narrative—well above historical averages—but the second quarter shows companies are finding firmer footing even as they acknowledge the risks.
Advisors may want to interpret this trend as a signal of resilience. Companies aren’t ignoring macro risks, but they are less focused on painting them as existential threats. For client portfolios, that may translate into a more constructive near-term backdrop for equities, albeit one that still requires careful monitoring of sector-specific vulnerabilities.
