AI capital spending has grown so rapidly that it is now more than a sector-specific tailwind—it may be serving as a core engine for the entire U.S. economy. For wealth advisors and RIAs, this shift is critical to monitor because it ties together technology investing, macroeconomic stability, and client portfolio positioning.
At the same time, advisors are seeing renewed interest in reverse mortgages as a funding source for retirement and estate planning strategies. While seemingly unrelated, both developments—AI-driven capex and home equity liquidity—reflect the search for growth and resilience in a changing financial environment.
On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank’s global head of FX research, George Saravelos, published a note highlighting the outsized role of artificial intelligence in stabilizing the economy. His central argument: without the dramatic ramp-up in AI-related capital expenditures this year, the U.S. would likely already be in a recession or teetering on its edge. For RIAs advising clients who may be questioning the resilience of economic growth amid inflationary headwinds and slowing global demand, this is a pivotal observation.
His comments came just one day after Nvidia announced a staggering $100 billion investment in OpenAI. The deal aims to build and scale advanced data centers powered by Nvidia’s hardware, reinforcing the company’s dominance as the supplier of essential infrastructure for the AI revolution. This investment is not just about corporate partnerships; it underscores how a single company’s capex decisions are influencing the broader trajectory of U.S. growth.
“The good news,” Saravelos wrote, “is that the AI super-cycle may be helping mute the negative demand (tariffs) and supply (immigration) shocks hitting the U.S. economy right now. It may not be an exaggeration to write that Nvidia—the key supplier of capital goods for the AI investment cycle—is currently carrying the weight of U.S. economic growth.”
For advisors, that insight underscores two realities: first, that equity market performance and GDP growth are both heavily reliant on a narrow set of firms; and second, that client portfolios with concentrated exposure to those companies are benefiting from this extraordinary momentum. Yet it also raises risk-management questions. What happens when the investment cycle slows?
Saravelos cautioned that this unprecedented level of spending cannot continue forever. For AI to remain a driver of GDP growth, capital investment would need to sustain its current parabolic trajectory—something he considers “highly unlikely.” This presents a challenge for wealth advisors as they help clients frame expectations for the years ahead. Today’s AI-driven growth is about building the infrastructure: the data centers, chip foundries, and digital highways. But when those projects reach completion, the key question becomes whether AI-driven productivity gains will be strong enough—and widespread enough—to sustain economic growth.
“Once the factories have been built, will the productivity gains from AI take over?” Saravelos asked. “And how globally disseminated will those benefits be, as opposed to the location of the factories themselves?”
These are not just academic questions. For RIAs and wealth advisors, they go directly to how clients should be positioned as we approach 2026. Portfolios tied too closely to the AI buildout could face headwinds if capex levels normalize and GDP growth softens. At the same time, exposure to the broader adoption of AI-driven productivity could provide opportunities in sectors ranging from healthcare to financial services.
Deutsche Bank analysts, according to Saravelos, have not yet fully answered these questions, but they are already integrating the uncertainties into their outlook for the U.S. dollar and the broader macroeconomic landscape. Advisors, likewise, should be considering how currency, interest rate, and equity dynamics will shift as the AI cycle evolves.
The convergence of these factors—AI spending, economic resilience, estate planning strategies such as reverse mortgages—offers wealth advisors a moment to step back and assess. For clients, the key is not only participating in the AI-driven boom but also ensuring long-term security and flexibility in case the cycle turns. AI may be carrying the economy today, but portfolio construction and estate planning remain the bedrock of durable financial strategies.
