Oracle’s and Adobe’s upcoming quarterly releases provide an early window into the evolving dynamics shaping the 2026 first-quarter earnings season—an important consideration for wealth advisors and RIAs positioning portfolios amid shifting macro and sector-specific currents. Oracle is scheduled to report on Tuesday, March 10th, followed by Adobe on Thursday, March 12th. Both companies will disclose results for fiscal quarters ending in February, which are incorporated into the broader March-quarter earnings framework.
While the 2026 Q1 earnings season will formally take center stage once the major financial institutions begin reporting in approximately four weeks, the market will already have absorbed a meaningful set of February-quarter results by that time. Nearly two dozen companies will have reported, offering incremental insight into earnings trends, including bellwethers such as Oracle and Adobe.
It is worth noting that these two companies are not the first to report February-quarter results. That distinction belongs to AutoZone and Costco, whose recent releases effectively marked the start of the 2026 Q1 reporting cycle. As such, investors already have early signals regarding consumer resilience and operational execution across select segments of the economy.
Market narrative has shifted in recent weeks. Prior to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a sharp increase in oil prices, investor focus had been squarely on developments within the artificial intelligence ecosystem. Two key concerns emerged: first, the accelerating pace of capital expenditures by mega-cap technology companies to build AI infrastructure; and second, the potential long-term disruption AI may pose to traditional software business models and profitability.
These concerns have been reflected in the relative underperformance of both Oracle and Adobe shares. Oracle has faced investor skepticism tied to the scale and funding requirements of its AI-driven data center expansion strategy. Adobe, meanwhile, has contended with growing uncertainty around how generative AI could reshape its core creative and digital media franchises. Over the past year, both stocks have lagged broader benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and the technology sector, underscoring the market’s cautious stance.
Oracle’s strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure is capital-intensive. The company is investing heavily in building out data centers, which it views as foundational to its long-term growth ambitions in cloud and AI services. However, unlike hyperscale peers such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, Oracle does not possess the same level of internally generated cash flow to fund these investments. This creates a structural funding gap that is likely to persist over the next several years.
For wealth advisors, this introduces a nuanced capital allocation and balance sheet risk discussion. Oracle’s capital expenditures are expected to exceed its operating cash flows, necessitating external financing. Relying heavily on debt markets could pressure the company’s investment-grade credit rating, while issuing equity could dilute existing shareholders. This trade-off has become a focal point for investors and contributed to volatility in the stock following its last earnings release in December.
That prior release highlighted both operational and financial tensions. While Oracle delivered mixed results, investor attention centered on the implications of its funding strategy. Looking ahead, consensus expectations call for earnings of $1.70 per share on revenues of $16.89 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 15.7% and 19.5%, respectively. Notably, estimate revisions have remained stable over the past two months, suggesting a relatively steady outlook despite ongoing concerns.
Adobe presents a different, though equally important, set of considerations. The company remains fundamentally strong, with expectations of $5.88 per share in earnings on $6.28 billion in revenues—year-over-year increases of 15.8% and 9.9%, respectively. However, sentiment has been tempered by questions around how AI-driven tools may commoditize elements of its product suite or alter pricing power over time.
From an advisory perspective, Adobe’s situation highlights the broader challenge of evaluating incumbents in industries undergoing technological disruption. While near-term fundamentals remain intact, long-term valuation frameworks must increasingly account for competitive pressures from emerging AI-native platforms. This is reflected in modest downward revisions to full-year estimates, even as near-term quarterly expectations have held steady.
Stepping back, the broader earnings backdrop remains constructive. For the 2026 first quarter, total S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 11.4% year-over-year, supported by revenue growth of 8.5%. This represents a continuation of the earnings recovery trend observed over recent quarters and reinforces the underlying resilience of corporate profitability.
Importantly, estimates for the current quarter have shown a modest but consistent upward trend in recent weeks. This stabilization—and slight improvement—suggests that analysts are gaining confidence in the earnings trajectory, even as macro uncertainties persist. For RIAs, this reinforces the case for maintaining exposure to equities, particularly in sectors demonstrating earnings durability and pricing power.
Looking at the broader trajectory, double-digit earnings growth is anticipated not only for 2026 but also for the full 2025 calendar year. This forward earnings momentum provides a supportive backdrop for equity valuations, though it also raises the bar for companies to meet or exceed expectations.
That said, macro risks remain a critical variable. The recent spike in oil prices, driven by geopolitical developments in the Middle East, introduces a potential headwind. Sustained elevated energy costs would have negative implications for both consumers and businesses, potentially compressing margins and dampening demand. For current earnings projections to materialize, a normalization in energy prices will likely be necessary.
Turning to the recently concluded earnings season, the fourth quarter of 2025 has delivered strong results overall. As of early March, 493 S&P 500 companies—representing nearly the entire index—have reported. Aggregate earnings for these companies increased by 14.1% year-over-year, on revenue growth of 9.1%.
The quality of earnings has also been notable. Approximately 75.3% of companies exceeded earnings per share estimates, while 72.6% surpassed revenue expectations. These beat rates are consistent with, or slightly above, historical averages, indicating broad-based operational strength.
For wealth advisors, this strong finish to 2025 provides an important foundation for client conversations. It underscores the resilience of corporate America despite a complex macro environment characterized by higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid technological change.
However, the transition between earnings seasons creates a period of overlap that requires careful interpretation. While the 2025 Q4 reporting cycle is largely complete, a significant number of companies are still scheduled to report, with some results contributing to the Q4 tally and others, like Oracle and Adobe, feeding into Q1 2026.
This overlap can create short-term noise in aggregate data, but it also offers an opportunity to identify emerging trends earlier in the cycle. Advisors who closely monitor these early reporters can gain a timing advantage in adjusting sector exposures or identifying inflection points.
From a portfolio construction standpoint, several themes emerge. First, the sustainability of AI-related capital spending remains a central question. While the long-term growth opportunity is substantial, the near-term financial implications—particularly for companies without hyperscale economics—require careful scrutiny.
Second, the potential for AI to disrupt existing business models introduces both risk and opportunity. Companies with strong competitive moats and the ability to integrate AI effectively may enhance their market position, while others could face margin pressure and increased competition.
Third, macro factors, particularly energy prices and geopolitical developments, continue to play an outsized role in shaping market sentiment. Advisors should remain vigilant in assessing how these external variables may impact earnings expectations and asset allocation decisions.
Finally, the overall earnings environment remains supportive, with solid growth and healthy beat rates. This suggests that, despite pockets of volatility and uncertainty, the fundamental backdrop for equities is intact.
In this context, Oracle and Adobe serve as important case studies. They illustrate the complexities of navigating a rapidly evolving technological landscape while managing financial discipline and investor expectations. For RIAs and wealth advisors, their upcoming earnings reports will provide valuable insights—not only into company-specific performance but also into broader themes that will shape markets in the quarters ahead.
