LPL: This Looks Bullish

(Benzinga) Since the beginning of November, the S&P 500 has rallied 13.8% to close out a volatile and unpredictable year on a high note. Not only is the late-year rally good news for investors’ 2020 returns, it also may bode very well for 2021.

Finishing Strong: On Thursday, LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said the closing two months of 2020 have been the best November and December for investors since World War II.

“Turns out a 10% or more gain in the final two months of the year has equaled a higher S&P 500 the following year every single time since World War II,” Detrick said.

“In fact, January was also higher every single time as well, so maybe this strong rally to end the year is a clue for higher prices into next year.”

During the five years the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more in the final two months of the year, the index averaged another 3% gain during the following January.

Looking out even further, the S&P 500 gained at least 10.8% in the year following each of these five years. In fact, the average S&P 500 gain in those five years has been 18.1%.

Benzinga’s Take: Historical data can certainly be useful in understanding market trends, but a sample size of five years is way too small to draw conclusions with any degree of certainty.

At the very least, strong market returns in November and December suggest investors are optimistic about what the following year has in store for the market.


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