(Bloomberg) - Doubts triggered by the Middle East conflict are feeding into US earnings, with some companies refraining from increasing forecasts despite a strong start to the year, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The clearest pressure points are in industries directly exposed to the war’s effects, with airlines, transport companies and manufacturers facing a hit from rising oil prices, the team led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said in a client note.
Winners are emerging among energy producers, oil field service providers and chemical companies that benefit from cheaper US-based raw materials, they said.
“Companies expressed particular concern about the duration and escalation potential of the conflict, with many embedding conservative assumptions into guidance,” Lakos-Bujas said.
With 24% of S&P 500 Index members having reported, there’s a theme of “heightened vigilance but limited near-term impact,” the strategists said. Most companies said they have seen little evidence so far of material deterioration in demand, credit quality or consumer behavior through the first quarter, they added.
US stocks have rebounded from the losses incurred as the conflict erupted at the end of February, with the S&P 500 notching fresh record highs. Renewed enthusiasm over artificial intelligence and its potential to power increased profits at AI enabling companies is taking precedence among investors over concerns about the war’s economic impact.
Consensus projects S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth of about 18% this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Those lofty expectations create the risk of investor disappointment should profits miss estimates, with much of the burden falling on the shoulders of tech giants.
This is the busiest week of the earnings season. About 36% of S&P 500 companies — representing roughly 42% of the index’s market capitalization — are set to report, including the largest technology firms.
In a sign of resilience in the face of persistent macroeconomic concerns, most companies reporting so far have maintained or raised their guidance, according to the JPMorgan strategists.
By Levin Stamm
With assistance from Michael Msika
April 28, 2026
