(Yahoo! Finance) - In the absence of government data on the health of the US consumer, analysts are patching together a quilt of private data sources to tell a coherent story. The trouble is, spending figures were confounding even before the shutdown. And alternate measures now offer mixed signals.
But even as observers try to suss out whether Americans' spending power is hanging on or waning, the spending split between high earners and everyone else continues to reveal itself. And soon, consumers will confront a holiday shopping season darkened by lingering inflation, tariffs, and diminished job prospects.
Sales data and commentary this week arrived with a unique context and unusual caveat, courtesy of Washington. The most reliable information on retail sales went missing. Other metrics, in turn, took on increased importance, but also, in a way, irrelevance. Without the most trustworthy, influential report, analysts had to weigh other measures against each other and what the government's official figures might eventually show.
Data from credit card spending and other sources suggests that consumers pulled back last month after a robust summer of spending, according to an analysis of card data from Bloomberg. Softer demand was also the takeaway from credit card data out of Bank of America.
As our colleague Brooke DiPalma reported on Friday, earnings commentary offered a robust picture of spending, but was complicated by a consumer wage split. Americans making over $100,000 a year are boosting the US economy, while lower earners are being stretched financially.
"Spending by higher-income individuals on luxury travel and accommodation was reportedly strong," observed the Federal Reserve in its latest Beige Book report published on Wednesday. But it added that reports highlighted how lower- and middle-income households continued to seek discounts and promotions to cope with higher prices and economic uncertainty.
Overall consumer spending inched down in recent weeks, according to the report. And earnings commentary from auto companies, packaged food businesses, and dollar stores highlighted more-affluent consumers powering through pricing pressures.
Even a lopsided economy can keep churning. But the next test of consumer resilience will show if a post-summer lull was in the service of upcoming holiday spending, or a preview of a harsher outlook for the year's end.
By Hamza Shaban - Senior Reporter
