Here’s how traders think the markets will react to the U.S. election, according to one broker’s survey

The biggest fear for market participants from the election is no result at all, at least according to one survey of market participants.

Nomura’s Singapore-based currency team, for a second time, polled their clients on how they felt global markets would react. The more recent poll was conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 5, a period that included the first U.S. presidential debate as well as the hospitalization of President Donald Trump for COVID-19.

While hardly exhaustive, it gives a sense of institutional sentiment, at least of those that are conducting currency trades in the Asian timezone.

By far the worst scenario for the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, would be no clear winner, according to this survey. The best scenario would be a re-election of Trump with a Republican Senate. Everything else would be a languid shrug.

On the bond side, the possibility of increased fiscal stimulus from a Democratic sweep would lift the yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.727% the most. By contrast, yields would fall sharply without a clear winner, with investors rushing to the safety of bonds.

The possibility of a contested election has analysts looking at the election of 2000, as well as the less recent 1876 contest. 

This article originally appeared on MarketWatch.


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