(Bloomberg) - Corporate America’s earnings outlook for 2026 remains solid, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists, assuaging concerns after an underwhelming reporting season so far.
Of the S&P 500 members that have posted 2026 earnings-per-share forecasts, more than half have guided above analyst expectations, exceeding a historical average of 40%, strategist Ben Snider said.
The figures are reassuring for investors who have been largely unimpressed by fourth-quarter earnings. Nearly halfway into the season, about 78% of S&P 500 firms have beaten estimates so far, a smaller share compared with the previous two quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
The bar was high for further stock gains after a record-breaking rally last year lifted valuations, but those providing brighter outlooks have been rewarded.
Lockheed Martin Corp. rose 4% after the maker of missiles and fighter jets forecast 2026 earnings above analyst expectations, while Verizon Inc. rose the most since October 2008 as its projections for adjusted earnings and free cashflow exceeded the consensus outlook. Meta Platforms Inc. gained 10% after the Facebook parent gave a revenue outlook that was much stronger than expected, which helped offset the impact of higher AI-related spending.
In contrast, disappointing results have been severely punished. Microsoft Corp. shares plunged after the software giant’s report featured an underwhelming read on growth in its Azure cloud-computing business.
Consensus estimates for S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 have remained roughly unchanged since the start of this earnings season, with the Goldman team expecting a 12% increase for members of the benchmark index. The consensus analyst estimate is 13.5%, according to data compiled by BI.
Over at JPMorgan Chase & Co., strategist Mislav Matejka said results looked “encouraging” this reporting season.
“Corporate capex should be helped by robust earnings delivery, which appears to be accelerating and broadening,” Matejka said. “Earnings are coming out well.”
By Rose Henderson
With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani and Michael Msika
