(Bloomberg) - Government shutdowns all end eventually. The only question is how.
That’s because, to get to ‘yes,’ somebody usually has to do something they explicitly vowed they would never, ever, do.
Democrats have been insisting that the current spending bill awaiting their approval extends expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, and they want assurances that President Donald Trump and his budget chief Russell Vought will cease unilateral spending cuts to Democratic states, cities and priorities.
Republicans and the Trump administration are adamant they won’t negotiate at all until the government reopens — and in the meantime will fire thousands of federal workers and cut programs benefiting Democratic-run states in a bid to increase pressure. In past shutdowns, workers were furloughed without pay but returned to their jobs and received back pay when the government reopened.
Although there is no end in sight on Tuesday, here’s five ways this shutdown could end:
Schumer Caves
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer agrees to end the Democratic opposition that precipitated the government shutdown. In past shutdowns, including the 2013 shutdown where Republicans attempted to force an end to the ACA, the party that instigated the shutdown eventually relents, with little to nothing to show for it. In this case Senate Democrats have been filibustering a House-passed, GOP-written stopgap spending bill that would keep the government open through Nov. 21. If Schumer gave up, Democrats wouldn’t have a policy win to show for it, but they could message they were willing to go to the wall to fight Trump while elevating health care as a key issue ahead of the midterm elections.
Democratic Jailbreak
A handful of Senate Democrats could defect from Schumer’s blockade, joining two Democrats and one Democratic-leaning independent who have been voting with the GOP. This is what Republican leaders want, and gives them the 60 votes they need to end the filibuster. Senate Republicans have been talking with Democratic senators, including Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, in hopes of peeling off just enough votes, in part with promises to pass regular, bipartisan spending bills and engage in good-faith negotiations leading to votes on extending the health care credits. But few Democrats trust Republican assurances on the future talks.
They Make a Deal
Schumer and Trump shake hands on a deal. While Trump has insisted he won’t negotiate until the government reopens, Republican Senator John Kennedy thinks it’s possible the two men at the center of the shutdown fight could agree to a path forward. Schumer calls Trump “the decider” who could get House and Senate leaders to put a deal up for votes.
Republican Jailbreak
House Republican leaders and Trump commit to extending the ACA subsidies temporarily after more House Republicans start defecting. Millions of Americans are starting to get notices that their health care premiums are set to skyrocket. Some House Republicans in battleground states have already urged leaders to extend the subsidies, including high-profile Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia.
Nuclear Option
Senate Republicans, increasingly frustrated by what they see as Democrats’ irresponsible use of the Senate filibuster, vote to change the rules so they can reopen the government with a simple majority. Republicans used a similar so-called “nuclear option” just a few weeks ago to speed confirmations of Trump’s nominees, but so far have vowed not to mess with the legislative filibuster and its 60-vote rule — fearing the move would boomerang when Democrats return to power.
So far, it’s anybody’s guess which of the five scenarios will end the shutdown. Right now, both parties seem convinced their side is winning the messaging war — or will win eventually.
Here are some other factors that could speed a deal:
Polls Shift
Public opinion surveys on the shutdown right now suggest Democrats are narrowly winning the blame game, and show majority support for extending the ACA health care tax credits at the center of the debate. A shift in polling one way or another could prompt one side or the other to give in. In the past, voters tend to sour on everyone in Washington, which isn’t ideal for Republicans since they are in charge.
Pain Increases
Shutdowns don’t entirely happen all at once, with the impacts being felt more over time. A few days are barely noticed. A couple of weeks and suddenly millions of federal workers and contractors go without a paycheck. After a month, more things start breaking and economic impacts spiral, with disruptions in air travel among the pain points that can anger large numbers of voters and convince lawmakers to reach a deal. A key date to watch is Nov. 1, when ACA marketplace exchanges open and tens of millions are confronted with much costlier monthly premiums. Notices already are going out.
Upcoming Elections
Senators and representatives in key battlegrounds for the midterm elections could start putting pressure on their leaders to act. Senators facing tough reelection fights include Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff, Maine Republican Susan Collins and Ohio Republican Jon Husted.
By Steven T. Dennis
