The Fed might never hike rates again. Here are growth stocks for the long run, according to one strategist

So just how significant was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on inflation? In the speech that markets were eagerly awaiting, Powell announced the Fed would target inflation to average 2% over time, and that the central bank won’t feel obliged to raise interest rates if it believes the economy is running at full employment.

The S&P 500 on Thursday edged up to a new record, while the Nasdaq slipped, though to its second-highest perch ever. U.S. Treasury yields rose, particularly at the long end, which isn’t the direction you would expect from an ostensibly dovish move. Perhaps, as University of Oregon professor Tim Duy wrote, the market perceived there was no “meat on the bones of this policy” because the central bank left implementation fuzzy.

But that is the short-term view. Joachim Klement, investment strategist at U.K. brokerage Liberum Capital, said the Fed’s change of policy goals makes it almost inevitable that the next five years will be dominated by a Japan-like environment of low nominal and real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rates.

In a note entitled, “Low rates forever? — Possibly,” Klement points out that had the Fed abided by its new inflation strategy, it would have left interest rates unchanged for a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. “Given the historic experience and current Fed and market implied forecasts, we find it safe to argue that the Fed will not hike interest rates not just for three years, but for the next five years if not longer,” he says.

The long-run trend on interest rates is clear.

Quantitative easing will continue because the Fed will need to keep nominal rates low across the yield curve, he says. For 10-year Treasurys this means a level of 2% to 2.5% to keep it in the range over the last decade — which would imply a big upward move from current depressed levels “but not enough to impede the cost of borrowing.” The Bank of England and European Central Bank will also have to keep interest rates low, just to avoid having their currencies appreciate versus the dollar, though the difficult economic situation Europe and the U.K. are facing would make any tightening unlikely anyway.

He concedes, over the next 12 months, growth stocks are priced for perfection, and value may outperform. “However, low nominal and real rates mean that discount factors for future cash flows will decline and with it, stock market valuations are likely to increase. Stocks with a larger portion of cash flows further in the future (in other words growth stocks) experience a stronger rerating than high dividend stocks and stocks with less growth,” he said.

He highlighted companies with strong sales and earnings growth but low leverage, which have the space to further boost their growth through borrowing. For MarketWatch, he produced a screen of S&P 500 companies with strong sales and earnings growth but low levels of financial leverage.

Companies P/E Debt/equity 5-yr average EBIT growth (%) 5-year average sales growth (%)
Paycom Software US:PAYC 96.4 11.6 70.5 30.7
Facebook US:FB 35.8 10.7 36.9 36.9
IHS Markit US:INFO 57.8 60.8 32.4 36.7
Arista Networks US:ANET 26.9 3.4 45 24.5
Adobe US:ADBE 67.4 39.3 51.3 22
Nvidia US:NVDA 82.2 21.7 30.3 30.5
Abiomed US:ABMD 82.9 1.1 54.1 19.9
Fortinet US:FTNT 54.9 3.5 42.1 20.8
Intuit US:INTU 49.8 70.3 24.1 24.1
Cigna US:CI 12.2 83.8 18.8 51.9
Prologis US:PLD 66.8 47.5 25.4 22.7
Lennar US:LEN 11.4 48.5 21.8 19.6
Cincinnati Financial US:CINF 22.4 9 26.7 16.5
SVB Financial US:SIVB 14.6 8.8 19.5 19.8
Bristol-Myers Squibb US:BMY 26.4 92 17.9 21
Alexion Pharmaceuticals US:ALXN 10.6 24.5 19.5 17.9
Align Technology US:ALGN 114.3 4.4 22.9 15.9
Progressive US:PGR 10.6 33.2 21.5 15.8
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals US:REGN 24.8 6.7 21.8 14.8
Micron Technology US:MU 21.4 15.9 19 16.5

The buzz

This article originally appeared on MarketWatch.

Popular

More Articles

Popular