The future of federal estate tax planning remains in flux as Congress weighs a tax proposal that would expand the estate-tax exemption to $15 million starting in 2026.
While the proposal offers potential relief for high-net-worth households, particularly those with estates between $7 million and $15 million, the path forward is far from certain—and advisors are urging clients to plan for multiple scenarios.
The proposed tax legislation, currently advancing through the House of Representatives, includes roughly $4 trillion in tax cuts. Approximately $200 billion of that total is allocated to increasing the federal estate tax exemption to $15 million, according to analysis from the Bipartisan Policy Center. This would preserve the status quo for most wealthy households, as the current $13.61 million exemption per individual (or $27.22 million for a married couple) is already well beyond the reach of all but the top 0.1% of estates.
The core concern for estate planners and clients is whether this proposed increase will pass as currently written, be revised in the Senate, or fail to pass at all—triggering a reversion to pre-2017 levels. Without new legislation by December 31, 2025, the expanded exemption enacted under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 will sunset, reducing the per-person exemption to an estimated $7 million, adjusted for inflation.
For wealth advisors and estate planning attorneys, the magnitude of the change is significant, not because a $1 million increase to the exemption alters planning fundamentals, but because the risk of a major decrease introduces considerable uncertainty.
“Any increase helps,” said Robert Strauss, director at Los Angeles-based estate law firm Weinstock Manion. “But for actual high-net-worth clients, an increase of $1 million isn’t materially transformative. The real relief is that the exemption wouldn’t be cut in half.”
Strategic Limbo for HNW Families
The $15 million exemption would amount to a $5.7 million tax benefit per couple when compared with the reversion to the estimated $7 million figure. That savings—$28.56 million versus $14.68 million in exempt assets for married couples—is meaningful for affluent families looking to preserve generational wealth. But the proposal’s cost to the federal budget raises hurdles for its passage.
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan think tank, noted that the estate tax cut is one of many provisions contributing to the legislation’s high price tag. In a political environment where increasing the national debt by several trillion dollars is required to offset other elements of the bill, estate tax relief may become a bargaining chip—vulnerable to revision or removal.
“This is not the time for clients to lock in plans based on the proposal,” said Tasha Dickinson, a Florida-based estate attorney at Day Pitney. “The estate-tax component is modest compared to the overall legislation, and it’s unclear how long the proposal will retain its current form. We could see this pushed to the end of the year—or beyond.”
That uncertainty is what makes this a critical moment for proactive planning. Dickinson emphasized that wealth advisors should engage clients now—regardless of net worth—to model both high and low exemption scenarios. Waiting until December or hoping for retroactive provisions in 2026 is a gamble, particularly given the risk of death or incapacity before the law becomes settled.
“We’re approaching the point where clients will have to make tough calls,” she said. “Either they bet the higher exemption passes and hold off on maximizing current gifting, or they act now, potentially unnecessarily, if the exemption is preserved or raised.”
Planning in the Gray Zone
The challenge for advisors is that estate planning takes time—and often significant coordination across legal, tax, and wealth management professionals. Setting up trusts, executing large gifts, and transferring assets requires advanced structuring, especially when clients are concerned with retaining enough wealth to maintain lifestyle flexibility.
Strauss noted that while his firm is optimistic about the exemption being extended, they’re not leaving clients unprepared. “We’re moving forward with planning for estates that exceed $15 million per individual or $30 million per couple,” he said. “The assumption is: if you’re over the line, even temporarily, it’s worth implementing tax-reduction strategies now.”
For many ultra-high-net-worth clients, this means accelerating wealth transfer strategies. Popular approaches include the use of irrevocable trusts, spousal lifetime access trusts (SLATs), charitable lead annuity trusts (CLATs), and generation-skipping transfer planning. Advisors are also encouraging clients to consider funding life insurance outside of the taxable estate as a tool for covering potential estate tax liability without creating liquidity stress for heirs.
“Not every wealthy client wants to give everything away,” Strauss said. “There’s a balance between tax efficiency and retaining enough wealth to support your lifestyle and legacy goals. That’s where targeted planning is key.”
Importantly, some clients will pay estate tax not due to poor planning, but because of deliberate choices to preserve control or flexibility. For these clients, the estate tax becomes a calculated cost, often mitigated through insurance strategies.
The Clock Is Ticking
As political negotiations play out, wealth advisors must keep clients focused on what they can control. Dickinson warns that by the time legislation becomes clear—if it does so at all before year-end—it may be too late for optimal execution. Advisors should be building contingency plans now, especially for clients hovering around the $7 million to $15 million threshold.
“This isn’t just about the ultrarich,” she said. “Many successful entrepreneurs, professionals, and families in high-cost areas fall into this middle band where they’re not immune to estate tax, but also not comfortable giving away vast sums prematurely. These are the clients who need guidance the most right now.”
Estate attorneys are closely watching how Congress approaches potential retroactive legislation as well. A retroactive increase in the exemption could theoretically protect families who didn’t act before year-end. But it also introduces legal uncertainty, and for families facing the unexpected loss of a spouse in early 2026, that uncertainty could carry real consequences.
“Clients can’t plan around hypothetical retroactivity,” Dickinson said. “You have to plan based on current law and realistic timelines.”
Advisors as Frontline Strategists
The role of financial advisors in this environment is more important than ever. Beyond technical expertise, they serve as quarterbacks—helping clients align estate, tax, and financial strategies in real time. The current uncertainty underscores the value of a disciplined, scenario-based approach.
Key planning conversations now revolve around:
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Whether to fully use the current $13.61 million exemption before year-end
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Structuring gifts to allow some retained access, such as through SLATs
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Evaluating the use of valuation discounts and family entity structures
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Incorporating charitable vehicles for tax-advantaged giving
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Reviewing insurance coverage as a liquidity source for estate taxes
As 2025 approaches, advisors should also revisit legacy plans with clients to ensure alignment with personal goals, family dynamics, and current financial capacity.
“Clients need clarity more than they need predictions,” said Strauss. “Our job is to help them navigate ambiguity with a solid foundation in place.”
Whether the $15 million exemption passes, fails, or morphs in the legislative process, one thing remains constant: early, flexible, and well-informed planning is the only way to protect high-net-worth estates from avoidable tax burdens. For RIAs and wealth managers, this is the moment to take the lead.
