“I love deadlines. I love the whooshing noise they make as they go by,” wrote Douglas Adams in The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. It’s an apt description for the Trump administration’s ever-shifting trade deadlines—especially for financial professionals navigating portfolios in the current environment.
The July 9 expiration date for the administration’s 90-day tariff reprieve is approaching quickly. While the U.K. and Vietnam have secured permanent agreements, most other trading partners remain in limbo. Yet even this deadline may slip. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested Sunday that August 1 might be the actual inflection point, as that’s when tariffs could reset to the April 2 announcement—potentially reinstating higher duties across the board.
Further muddying the outlook, President Trump posted a fresh warning overnight: Countries engaging in what he labeled “anti-American” economic behavior could face additional 10% tariffs. Markets are again reminded that geopolitical risk remains a persistent feature of the investment landscape—and that policy volatility out of Washington remains a meaningful variable for asset allocators.
Equities continue to show resilience. The S&P 500 touched new highs heading into the July 4 holiday, buoyed by the passage of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act—a sweeping tax and budget measure that included significant cuts aimed at boosting near-term economic activity. But with that legislation now law, attention shifts back to trade tensions and their potential macroeconomic consequences.
Advisors would do well to remind clients that the next few weeks are packed with catalysts that could move markets—far beyond tariff announcements. On Tuesday, consumer confidence data hits. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its most recent meeting. And on Thursday, two earnings reports will offer direct insight into tariff impacts on corporate fundamentals: Delta Air Lines, which suspended forward guidance this spring due to trade uncertainty, and Levi Strauss, another firm closely tied to global supply chains.
There’s a growing sense that investors have developed a kind of psychological immunity to policy shocks. Markets absorbed the tariff battles of 2024, the volatility around Elon Musk’s legal and regulatory battles, and the drama around tax reform—all without a lasting breakdown in risk sentiment.
For wealth managers, that resilience raises an important question: Are markets underpricing the potential impact of a full-fledged trade escalation?
The S&P 500’s strength could reflect investor confidence that either the tariffs won’t materialize or that their economic effects will be manageable. But advisors may want to prepare clients for the alternative. If tariff levels ratchet higher, corporate margins—already under pressure from wage and input costs—could take a further hit. That’s particularly relevant for companies with exposure to Asia, Latin America, and the EU, where talks with Washington remain unresolved.
There’s also the question of policy credibility. If key deadlines continue to slide, or if trade announcements are seen as tools of political messaging rather than actionable policy, market reactions could become more muted. However, complacency can carry risk. Advisors should use this period to revisit the assumptions behind client allocations—particularly for sectors tied to global trade, such as industrials, materials, and multinational consumer brands.
Fixed income markets, too, are parsing the signals. Treasury yields remain rangebound, but that could change quickly if trade tensions spark a flight to safety—or if inflation expectations rise on the back of costlier imports. Advisors managing duration exposure should consider how a renewed tariff cycle might affect the yield curve and credit spreads.
Meanwhile, the dollar’s strength presents a double-edged sword. While it can dampen inflation by making imports cheaper, it also complicates the competitive position of U.S. exporters, particularly if tariffs remain unevenly applied across global partners. Wealth advisors managing international allocations may want to assess the currency impact on both performance and risk.
Notably, some institutional strategists see opportunity amid the noise. For tactical allocators, short-term dislocations tied to trade headlines could offer entry points—particularly in high-quality U.S. names with pricing power and diversified supply chains. At the same time, others are looking to reduce exposure to firms with concentrated overseas production or limited hedging flexibility.
In this environment, communication with clients becomes especially critical. Market headlines can shift rapidly, but the underlying economic fundamentals often move more slowly. Advisors should help clients focus on the long-term impact of trade and tax policy, not just the day-to-day fluctuations.
Diversification remains a key tool. While U.S. equities have outperformed in the current cycle, clients with overexposure to domestic markets may be vulnerable if trade policy missteps trigger a broader slowdown. Emerging markets, despite recent volatility, may benefit from trade realignment over the longer term—particularly countries seen as alternatives to China in the global supply chain.
For now, volatility is the baseline, not the exception. As deadlines approach and new threats emerge, RIAs and wealth managers should focus on helping clients navigate through noise, uncertainty, and shifting narratives. That means keeping allocations flexible, reassessing risk exposures regularly, and being prepared to act decisively when policy clarity returns—whenever that may be.
Until then, Douglas Adams’ advice may be worth recalling: Don’t panic. But don’t be complacent either.
