Jeff Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, expects gold’s record-breaking rally to continue, forecasting a potential 20% increase in the price of the metal from its current level.
Speaking to CNBC, the influential fixed income investor—often referred to as the “Bond King”—projected that gold could climb as high as $4,000 per ounce, up from approximately $3,345 at the close of trading last Friday.
Gundlach attributes gold’s strength to a fundamental shift in investor psychology. Rather than viewing gold solely as a hedge for extreme events or a speculative trade, he argues that market participants are beginning to treat it as a strategic asset class in its own right—one increasingly used as a monetary safe haven amid rising geopolitical instability, protectionist trade policies, and concerns over global debt levels.
“Gold is being revalued by investors,” Gundlach told CNBC. “It’s no longer just the domain of survivalists or short-term traders. We’re seeing people move into gold out of legitimate fear over how the world plans to manage its escalating debt burdens and the unpredictability stemming from tariffs and broader geopolitical turmoil. In that context, gold is behaving as a core monetary asset.”
Recent fund flow data supports that perspective. Physically backed gold ETFs drew $11 billion in net inflows during April, lifting global assets in the category to $397 billion, according to the World Gold Council.
The metal’s appeal also appears to be gaining traction among institutional allocators. A recent Bank of America survey of global fund managers found that 58% of respondents now consider gold the safest asset in the event of a full-scale trade conflict.
Gundlach’s bullish stance on gold is paired with a cautious outlook on equities. He reiterated his belief that the U.S. stock market faces heightened risk in the current environment, and warned that a meaningful decline in the S&P 500 may be ahead. He sees the index potentially falling to 4,500—a drop of approximately 20% from recent levels—citing a broader “risk-off” shift among investors.
“I continue to believe the setup for equities is poor on a medium-term basis,” Gundlach said. “We’re in an environment where the downside risks for risk assets like stocks are elevated, while gold benefits from rising demand for portfolio protection and monetary alternatives.”
Gundlach isn’t alone in his conviction. A growing number of Wall Street strategists have raised their gold forecasts in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs recently boosted its price target to $3,700 per ounce, citing persistent policy uncertainty and the potential for slowing U.S. growth.
UBS and Bank of America have likewise issued bullish outlooks, with both firms setting $3,500 targets—a level that implies modest but continued upside from current prices.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the bullish sentiment around gold reflects multiple converging forces. Among them are concerns over the global economy’s resilience amid escalating trade tensions, elevated sovereign debt levels, and growing speculation that central banks will be limited in their ability to respond to future downturns with conventional monetary tools.
For many advisors and institutional allocators, these conditions are creating a compelling rationale for increasing gold exposure as a portfolio stabilizer.
For wealth managers and RIAs, the implications are notable. The growing interest in gold suggests that clients—particularly high-net-worth and institutional investors—are increasingly receptive to diversifying beyond traditional equity and fixed income allocations.
Physically backed gold ETFs, as well as actively managed strategies with exposure to precious metals, may be worth evaluating as part of a broader portfolio risk management framework.
Moreover, the positioning shift in gold signals broader asset allocation trends. With bonds facing headwinds from interest rate uncertainty and stocks exhibiting volatility amid geopolitical headlines, more advisors are turning to alternatives and real assets to enhance portfolio durability. Gold’s outperformance year-to-date—up roughly 25%—has served to validate those adjustments, reinforcing gold’s potential utility in a diversified investment strategy.
While forecasting commodity prices is inherently fraught with uncertainty, Gundlach’s long-standing track record and the corroborating views of major global investment firms give added weight to the argument.
Whether gold ultimately reaches $4,000 or not, the directional conviction behind the trade underscores a wider reallocation toward safety and inflation-sensitive assets.
As Gundlach summed up in his interview, “We’re in a period where gold is assuming a more central role in how investors think about asset allocation. The volatility, the debt, the geopolitics—it all reinforces gold’s case as a durable store of value.”
For RIAs advising clients on navigating today’s macro environment, monitoring gold’s ascent—and understanding the forces driving it—could be critical to delivering informed, forward-looking guidance.
With economic uncertainty showing few signs of abating, gold’s resurgence may be more than a temporary trend—it could reflect a secular shift in investor priorities and portfolio construction.
