Bear Market in US Stocks Still in Its Infancy Versus History

(Bloomberg) - History shows that the bear market in US stocks may be far from over.

The S&P 500 Index has fallen 25% in a little more than nine months since its January peak, a shallower and shorter drop than is typical of similar instances over the last century. On average in that time, the benchmark has slid about 38% over a period of 15 to 16 months before reaching a bottom, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

With inflation and interest rates still rising, recession looming in many economies, and stress on supply chains and corporate margins, there are plenty of negatives for investors right now. Still, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, a long-time equities bear, said Monday that US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession.

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says US Stocks Can Rally in Short Term.

Jan-Patrick Barnert


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