Years ago, my friend John Mauldin described the Japanese yen market as a “bug in search of a windshield.” Some have said that John coined the phrase, and it was the first time I had heard it. But in 1974, Genesis on their last record with Peter Gabriel used a similar phrase: “And I’m hovering like a fly waiting for a windshield on the freeway.”
As the market has weakened in the last few weeks, and the news has seemed darker, with the political rhetoric turning more extreme and strident, I’ve felt this suspension of momentum that makes me wonder if the stock rally that we have been blessed with for the last eight months is coming to an end.
I’m sure many of you have felt the same way.
Perhaps you are wondering if a substantial decline is waiting at the next crossroad ahead. I wouldn’t blame you if you were.
The stock market experienced its second weekly decline last week. (Yet, the S&P 500 has declined only 2.2% since it topped out on August 7, 2017. The NASDAQ has followed suit with just a 3.02% drop since its July 25 top.)
While earnings were generally positive, the percentage of firms reporting better-than-expected results was smaller than it has been during the rally.
The perception seems to be that the government is at a standstill and all of the President’s agenda has been halted.
Protesters have increasingly been turning to violence. Neither property nor human lives have been spared.
All of this has increased the level of financial uncertainty. And uncertainty normally breeds volatility and price declines.
To make matters worse, we are entering the period of the year where stocks decline and the market becomes its most volatile.
All of these things are factual.
They are not fake news. And, as observers of the passing scene, we have the right to feel that we may be heading for a SPLAT on the windshield of financial life.
But the operative word here is “feel.”
As individuals, we all go through emotional highs and lows. And as a group, investors experience the same kind of roller-coaster ride. One look at a chart of a stock index or even consumer confidence demonstrates this.
Yet, I learned a long time ago that what I feel has no connection with what will happen. One learns the hard way as an investor that the financial markets couldn’t care less about what any of us feel. It does not enter into the equation. In fact, if you were to invest according to your feelings, my experience suggests that doing the opposite of what you feel is actually more often profitable.
There are plenty of facts that permit a feeling counter to the impending doom that seems to pervade markets of late.
The decline has taken stocks lower, it’s true. But that decline is from record heights. The drop has driven prices into oversold territory (more than one standard deviation from their 50-day moving average).
Typically, when that has occurred over the past three years, stocks soon reverse direction and climb higher (see the areas where the thick, dark-blue line sinks into the green zone in the chart above).
The Bespoke Investment Group points out that it has been 196 days since the S&P 500 last dipped into oversold territory. In its almost 100-year history, the Index has only been oversold for more than 150 days 16 times.
How has it done when this occurred in the past?
In all 16 cases, stocks were higher three months later! The average gain was 4.8%.
Continuing on this brighter note:
- While earnings have not been outperforming, reported corporate revenues have actually been beating expectations at a higher rate than they have been in recent years.
- Similarly, economic reports, which have been underperforming, have turned more positive. Of the 20 reports released last week, only five were below expectations.
- Inflation is running so far below Federal Reserve Board expectations that thoughts of a further increase in interest rates seem to have been placed on an indefinite hold.
- While things seem stalled in Washington, much is happening. Whether you view them as positive or negative, it is noteworthy that the President is issuing new presidential directives that are in pursuit of his goals almost daily. And did you know that there are more than 270 bills that have been passed by the House of Representatives this year? Of course, fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, they are awaiting Senate action.
- While short-term indicators remain bearish, suggesting more declines may lie immediately ahead, the intermediate-term factors continue to point to higher prices, and the strategies based upon them remain largely fully invested.
Still, we know that declines have to start somewhere, and usually they are not anticipated. When the market is near its high and uncertainty seems pervasive, we often fear the worst.
The funny thing is that we think times like these are special or singular, but in reality, the stock market, other financial markets, gold, and even bonds are always in that moment. They can peak and then turn lower at any point in time. As I wrote years ago, “Risk is always with us.”
A lone motorcyclist with no windshield may end up with bugs in his teeth. He goes it alone, like a fly by itself on a freeway.
Fortunately, you are neither the bug in our picture nor alone on the financial highway. Rather, you sit comfortably behind the windshield, one quantitatively designed to provide a level of protection from financial pests, whether they come alone or in swarms.
While the bugs may mess up the windshield and require some cleanup, you can avoid a wipeout like the bugs experience. That’s the aim of quantified, dynamic, risk-managed investing.
As we await the inevitable bug, take comfort in the fact that the windshield is intact. Maybe we just need to clean it off to truly see what is happening around us.
I look forward to many more bug-free miles with you on the road to prosperity.
All the best,
Jerry
P.S. I was so sorry to hear of Jerry Lewis’ passing yesterday. In 1953, my dad took me for my birthday to see him live at the Fox Theater in Detroit. He and Dean Martin were hilarious. My clearest memory of the event is of the two of them hanging out of the window on the side of the theater waving to the fans in thanks as we walked back to our cars still laughing over their appearance. Rest in peace, Jerry!
