The Hull Tactical Active U.S. Equity ETF (ticker: HTUS) completed 10 years of live performance in June—an exciting milestone for the actively managed exchange-traded fund (ETF). Launched in 2015, HTUS uses a dynamic blend of quantitative signals, adaptive modeling, and derivatives overlays to adjust equity exposure in real time. The strategy is updated daily through ongoing research, offering advisors a systematic approach to navigating shifting market conditions and managing portfolio risk without abandoning long-term equity exposure.
In an interview with The Wealth Advisor’s Scott Martin, Hull Tactical CEO Petra Bakosova and Senior Financial Engineer Euan Sinclair discussed HTUS’s evolution, the mechanics behind its real-time adaptability, and how its disciplined process supports financial advisors in today’s complex market environment.
Adaptive by Design: Models That Learn Every Day
HTUS is powered by an ensemble of adaptive models that evolve in real time with shifting market conditions. Each model contributes signals while continuously adjusting parameters and signal weightings as new data emerges. The real-time responsiveness helps the fund stay relevant across market cycles—not just by fine-tuning existing inputs but by adapting to new information entirely.
“Even when we’ve set [a model] as a factor into our process, it’s always adapting its parameters, how much weight it’s putting on various signals,” Sinclair notes, adding that inputs that were influential a decade ago—such as “money supply”—carry less weight today. “I haven’t heard that phrase in a decade,” he says. The Hull Tactical models reflect those shifts automatically, seeking to help HTUS stay aligned with contemporary drivers of market behavior.
Beyond model adaptation, the Hull Tactical team continually develops and integrates new strategies into the fund’s framework. Their commitment to ongoing research reinforces HTUS’s identity as a truly active ETF that evolves with the data, not just the calendar.
“We take the ‘active’ very seriously in ‘actively traded ETF,’” Sinclair says. “A lot of active funds, all they do is actively trade every day based on the same algorithm every day. Whereas we are always actively pursuing research. We’re trying to get better. We’re trying to have our models improve.”
Derivatives as a Strategic Edge
To complement its equity positioning, HTUS selectively employs options strategies as tactical overlays. One recently developed model is designed to activate only under certain volatility conditions, such as when the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) exceeds 25. In those scenarios, options might provide a flexible way to manage risk and enhance positioning without altering the core signal structure.
HTUS’s operational design allows the team to incorporate new models efficiently, seeking to help the fund remain responsive without delay. “We can immediately dump that model into our overall trading, and we don’t have any lag in doing that,” Sinclair says.
The responsive framework aims to help HTUS serve as a bridge between short-term risk management and longer-term exposure decisions—without requiring advisors to build those strategies separately.
Seeing Through the Noise: Signals Over Sentiment
While some headlines warn of darkly permanent change, Sinclair suggests recent market behavior aligns more with historical patterns. “There’s a tendency for people to say we’re entering a new normal, but I would kind of say it’s the same old normal,” he says. “If I hadn’t told you the last few months had been chaotic, you would have no idea where the markets are.”
The dislocation between perception and market reality underscores the value of the strategy’s research-driven foundation. Rather than react to narratives, HTUS uses volatility data and predictive indicators to determine risk regime shifts. The team analyzes volatility across multiple horizons—not just implied volatility such as the VIX captures but also near-term and midterm realized volatility forecasts. That process aims to help the team avoid premature or exaggerated moves—an advantage in periods of raucous sentiment.
From Family Office to ETF: Ten Years of Learning
HTUS originated within a family office, managing proprietary capital for Hull Investments with a focus on alpha generation, timing, and derivatives exposure. Transitioning from a trading environment to asset management required a shift in mindset. In the family office, performance was evaluated in the context of a broader internal portfolio, not against external benchmarks or peer categories.
Serving financial advisors and retail investors introduced a new set of expectations: clear benchmarks, defined portfolio roles, and consistent performance within recognizable categories.
“The path itself is not as important as long as you deliver the results, and the family office or the trading firm doesn’t necessarily stress about every single bad day,” explains Bakosova. “One of the things we’ve learned is that it’s really important to define your benchmark in your category, explain exactly how you fit into a client’s portfolio.”
Today, HTUS benchmarks against a buy-and-hold S&P 500 position, but its exposure is actively managed. On a neutral reading, the fund aims for 100% equity exposure. When signals are bullish, that can increase to 200%; when conditions turn defensive, it can scale down to 0%.
The daily adjustability allows HTUS to serve as either a flexible core replacement or a tactical sleeve—seeking to help advisors calibrate portfolio risk without abandoning long-term growth objectives.
Building Trust Through Transparency
HTUS’s 10-year track record is rooted in a disciplined, quantitative, and systematic investment philosophy that has remained a commitment over time. “We understand the importance of trust, and over the last 10 years, we are not changing our investment philosophy,” Bakosova says.
That consistency is matched by a deep commitment to transparency. The team regularly shares positioning updates, research insights, and how new models are integrated. “We aim to be really transparent about what we do, which we think helps build trust” she adds. “We try to make it easy for people to understand our product, even though it may seem complex on the surface.”
As HTUS heads into its second decade, the strategy now qualifies for long-term model filters and can be appraised alongside more traditional exposures—enabling advisors to assess the fund with the same rigor as core strategies.
One of the clearest lessons from the past decade, Bakosova notes, is that investors judge performance based on when they enter the fund. “People enter into your fund at any given time, and they all care about their individual return,” she says. Some investors are concerned how the fund performs over several years; others focus on short-term results. To better meet those varied expectations, Hull has refined its short-term positioning and added derivatives.
“We learned to hug the benchmark closely,” Bakosova says, “and we added some options overlay to help enhance the client performance and help with volatility.”
Daily Adjustments, Long-Term Commitment
Forgoing a single forecast, HTUS’s basis on a wide array of signals—from technical and volatility inputs to predictive macro data—allows the portfolio to evolve as conditions shift, rather than stake everything on a single thesis.
Despite its active nature, the strategy is built to emphasize repeatability over reactivity. The fund may adjust exposures frequently, but its implementation remains rooted in structure. “When things are going well, it should almost be boring,” Sinclair says. “Once you’ve got a good process, that’s part of the game, isn’t it? It’s implementation of your models. It’s a step that a lot of people seem to forget.” That consistency reinforces HTUS’s reliability as a tactical tool, even in volatile conditions.
“We don’t just have one hill to die on. There’s not just one number we’re hanging our hat on,” Bakosova says. “As markets evolve, whatever that might be—whatever might happen with inflation, whatever might happen with monetary policy—we’ll be able to evolve along with the markets.” Because allocations are reviewed and adjusted daily, the strategy can respond to new risks or opportunities as they arise and without delay.
“As new information surfaces, we have the ability to adjust our allocations, and we do adjust our allocations on a daily basis,” she adds. “So, as we discover new things, we are able to respond quickly.”
A Tactical Tool Built for Advisors
HTUS aims to offer advisors a disciplined tool that reacts responsively to cross-market signals, volatility regimes, and evolving macro trends. With a decade of performance, an adaptive ensemble, dynamic derivatives, and transparent communication, the strategy may provide a systematic complement to core equity allocations—backed by both history and rigor.
Strategic investing requires constant innovation, precise implementation, and trust. HTUS seeks to deliver on all three—day by day, model by model—so advisors can focus on client relationships, not managing volatility.
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Additional Resources
- Contact Hull Tactical Asset Allocation
- Hull Tactical US (HTUS) Summary
- HTUS Factsheet
- HTUS Investment Case
- HTUS Prospectus
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Disclosures
Carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risk factors, charges, and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in the Fund’s prospectus, which may be obtained by visiting www.hulltacticalfunds.com or calling toll-free 1-844-484-2484. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be achieved. Moreover, past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results.
HTAA, LLC serves as the investment advisor. The Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC (225 Pictoria Drive, Suite 450, Cincinnati, OH 45246), which is not affiliated with HTAA, LLC.
About the Hull Tactical US ETF (HTUS) Investment Strategy
HTUS is an actively managed exchange traded fund (ETF) driven by various proprietary analytical investment models that examine current and historical market data to attempt to predict the performance of the S&P 500® Index (the “S&P 500®”), a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is composed primarily of large-capitalization U.S. issuers. The models deliver investment signals that the Adviser uses to make investment decisions for the Fund. The investment models used are to anticipate forward market movements and position the Fund to take advantage of these movements. Currently, signals are combined into an ‘ensemble’ array that spans statistical, behavior-sentimental, technical, fundamental, and economic data sources. This combined signal is generated each trading day towards the close of the market and dictates whether the Fund is long/short and the magnitude of position sizing. The Adviser routinely evaluates the performance and impact of each model on the Fund with the goal of realizing a risk/return profile that is superior to that of a buy and hold strategy.
The use of derivative instruments involves risks different from, or possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in securities and other traditional investments. These risks include (i) the risk that the counterparty to a derivative transaction may not fulfill its contractual obligations; (ii) risk of mispricing or improper valuation; and (iii) the risk that changes in the value of the derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate, or index. Derivative prices are highly volatile and may fluctuate substantially during a short period of time. The use of leverage by the Fund, such as borrowing money to purchase securities or the use of options, will cause the Fund to incur additional expenses and magnify the Fund’s gains or losses. The Fund’s investment in fixed income securities is subject to credit risk (the debtor may default) and prepayment risk (an obligation paid early) which could cause its share price and total return to be reduced. Typically, as interest rates rise the value of bond prices will decline and the fund could lose value.
While the option overlay is intended to improve the Fund’s performance, there is no guarantee that it will do so. Utilizing an option overlay strategy involves the risk that as the buyer of a put or call option, the Fund risks losing the entire premium invested in the option if the Fund does not exercise the option. Also, securities and options traded in over-the-counter markets may trade less frequently and in limited volumes and thus exhibit more volatility and liquidity risk.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in the article are solely those of the author. The discussion of individual companies should not be considered a recommendation of such companies by the Fund’s investment adviser. The discussion is designed to provide a reader with an understanding of how the Fund’s investment adviser manages the Fund’s portfolio.
