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More than ever, the world economy is intertwined, beholden to trade flows, investments, technology and people crossing borders. In an era of rapid innovation, the need to stay competitive will continue to connect the economies of far off places.
Nothing is guaranteed, of course. What is said during a campaign and the reality of what is implemented once in office, are two completely different things – its politics after all. This discrepancy is likely to be even greater due to the uncertainty and costs associated with COVID-19. So why not simply weigh possible scenarios and the potential impact on different sectors of the U.S. economy?
Writing covered calls is a perennial strategy when otherwise good stocks stall and investors who need current income want to hold on for better long-term upside. Unless you want to manage a sprawling and volatile options book, exchange-traded projects do all the heavy lifting on an automated basis. But even in that automated environment there are still choices: how much income should we reach for, how far do we think the stocks themselves can move before the monthly expiration window closes?
While it is normal for the market to recover before the economy, the market’s more than 50% increase since its trough in March raises questions about valuations. Has the market got ahead of its fundamentals? These questions are particularly relevant with the economic recovery still so uncertain.
The Fed's interventions in the Treasury market ensure that real yields are not only negative but unattractive as income instruments even on a coupon rate basis. There's little risk of losing your principal with the Fed poised to redeem your paper, but that's only peripheral comfort when your clients need the income.